The gist is all over the trend is fast changing as President Buhari seems intent on crumbling the APC ahead of the 2023 presidential elections.
Recent events allude to the fact that Buhari is seriously pursuing a northern agenda and may not be looking the way of APC to achieve that.
From our private investigations, this seems to be a northern agenda and way beyond the APC and Buhari as a person.
Unfortunately, the Edo elections just only gave credence to our suspicions all this while.
Now the first question I expect to be asked is how does the northern agenda affect the destruction of the APC?
In my daily appraisal of the 2023 elections yesterday I explained how the APC was formed in 2013.
For the benefit of today’s discussion let me repeat how the APC formation came about.
The APC was a product of Nigeria’s three biggest opposition parties – the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the new PDP.
Now if you recall the major CORE group in the APC belongs to the Asiwaju political family.
So this is where the conspiracy begins Tinubu controls the APC South-West Governors and has a good relationship with the Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma and Kano State Governor Ganduje.
As at today, Tinubu has a strong chance of retaining the structure of the APC if push comes to shove.
The Ekiti State Governor, Kayode Fayemi who is very much interested in becoming the President of Nigeria has jettisoned Tinubu and his political family, already the media is currently abuzz with his suspension from the party.
It is quarter to go for the Ekiti State Governor as he might be on his way to join his friend and ally Godwin Obaseki in PDP.
Ordinarily if not for the northern agenda it is expected that Prof Osinbajo takes the mantle of leadership from Buhari. But Prof Osinbajo has been successfully caged in the presidency and may have no option than to give in to the northern agenda.
But one man who can not be cowed and has waited all these years for 2023 is Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
For clarity of purpose, it is not about Tinubu contesting personally as long as he throws his support for anyone he becomes a suspect, the only way out is to dismantle his influence. Tinubu is most unlikely to give up on APC which he co-formed in 2023 so the alternative action might be to destroy the party and make way for the northern presidency under the PDP.
I can hear you asking no way that power must shift to the South…Hell, no politics is a game of number no political party has ever adhered to zoning when it comes to the presidential elections.
Buhari did not start his political career in APC and must not end it in APC, politics is simply about interest and nothing else.
So where does Wike come in?
Recall President Buhari released the sum of N78.9 billion to Wike as reimbursement for the amount spent on executing some federal road projects in the state?
Who does that? Such huge amount was for a purpose politically and am very sure Wike is very much in the know of the whole arrangement.
Wike would neutralize Atiku this time around and give his support to whoever the northern cabal presents and would stand in as the Vice-President.
Also, you can all see the recent synergy between Buhari and Goodluck Jonathan, it is all deliberate.
With the PDP fully in for the northern agenda then every other thing would fall in place.
Unfortunately, Edo State fell victim to this northern agenda and maybe at the receiving end if adequate preparations for the 2023 elections fails to start now.
So let’s take a look at how the states stand presently via Geopolitical Zones
- North Central – APC 5, PDP 1
- North-East – APC 3, PDP 3
- North West – APC 5, PDP 2
- South-East – APC 1, PDP 3, APGA1
- South-South – APC Nil, PDP 6
- South-West – APC 5, PDP 1
So with Ekiti State Governor Kayode Fayemi leaving the APC, the South West would be left with 4 States for APC and PDP with 2 States.
Then Ondo’s case may likely swing in favour of PDP or ZLP which further whittles APC’s influence in the South-West.
Edo election is believed in some quarters to have been manipulated by Nyesom Wike with the active collaboration of the Presidency.
What are the likely scenarios?
Buhari would remain in APC and act non-committal and allow his lackeys to do the damage then thereafter claim it is democracy in action.
Tinubu should begin the battle now and start fighting with all his arsenals which includes forming his own regional party. With the formation of a new party, the Tinubu’s camp would be able to neutralize the enemies that are meant to work within and betray him at APC.
With Tinubu successfully carving out his own party alongside with the progressives then it is in a better stand to forge an alliance for 2023 Presidency.
The APC candidate in the Edo 2020 elections Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu should proceed with a court process to determine the eligibility of the PDP candidate in the last elections, these would go a long way in addressing so many issues that can not be stated here for obvious reasons.
Adams Oshiomhole at this point should contest his removal as the National Chairman of APC.
Politics is a profession and as such not predictable, if APC fails to plan ahead then they are planning to fail and believe you me it would be disastrous as the mudslinging would be enormous and whoever loses would not only suffer defeat but humiliation as well.
Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah writes in from Abuja.